TRUST / HOW ODDS WORK
How we estimate your odds
Every animal and listing on Lyferr shows how likely you are to see it on one guided tour this month. Here is where that comes from, and what it does not mean.
IN SHORT
- Odds are an estimate, never a promise.
- For now every level is a Lyferr estimate, built from published data: eBird checklists, research studies, dive logs and official counts.
- As trips booked on Lyferr are logged and confirmed by travellers, their results replace the published data and the estimates.
The odds on Lyferr today are written for October.
The four levels
Each level is for one guided tour, in that place, in that month.
- VERY LIKELYMost guided tours this month find it.
- LIKELYMore often than not.
- GOOD CHANCEWorth going for, but plan for a miss.
- RARERare. Go for the place and the other animals, and count a sighting as a bonus.
Where the numbers come from
For now every level is a Lyferr estimate. We start from the best public data we can find for that spot and month: the share of eBird checklists that report the animal, sighting rates from research studies, dive logs, and nesting or river counts. Where no rate has been published, we check the estimate with the guides who work there. The odds become data-based as guides log the trips booked on Lyferr.
The cut-offs: Very likely, 75% or more of outings. Likely, 50 to 74%. Good chance, 20 to 49%. Rare, under 20%. Birders' checklists are not guided tours, and a guide who targets one animal often does better than the numbers suggest.
What changes once trips are logged
After every trip the guide logs what they found, including the trips where they found nothing. Those logs replace the estimates as they build up.
A guide who honestly logs a trip without a sighting is never penalised for it.
Only trips booked on Lyferr count, and each one is checked against the traveller's own answer after the trip. A trip arranged privately with the guide does not add to their record or badge.
What odds do not mean
They are not a guarantee and not a ranking. Tour lists are sorted by price, lowest first, and nobody pays to appear higher or to change an estimate.
Rare animals
For animals like wild cats or the Andean bear we say plainly that sightings are rare. Those pages point you to camera trap tours, or to the places where signs are found most often.